Despite the political buzz dying down after the U.S. election, Polymarket has proven its resilience, maintaining a loyal user base and steady market activity. Data from recent weeks reveals that the platform continues to hold strong, even in the absence of high-profile political events.
Polymarket’s Post-Election Stability
In the wake of the U.S. election, it was expected that Polymarket would see a dip in user engagement, given the decline in political betting. However, recent data indicates that the platform has weathered this transition well. Open interest—the total value of active positions—did experience an initial decline, dropping to $93 million by mid-November. However, it has steadily climbed back up to $115 million by the end of the month, proving that Polymarket’s user base is engaging with a variety of markets beyond just political predictions.
A Steady Stream of Active Traders
Polymarket continues to attract a steady number of active traders, with around 30,000 to 35,000 active wallets in recent weeks. This figure is only slightly lower than during the run-up to Election Day, suggesting that the platform’s user base remains engaged in a wide range of markets. Daily trading volumes have also stabilized, with figures in the mid-eight-figure range, a healthy level of activity compared to earlier in the year.
Diverse Trader Participation
One of the key factors behind Polymarket’s resilience is its broad base of smaller traders. Data shows that nearly 60% of all bets placed are for amounts under $100, with only a small fraction (5.8%) of trades between $1,000 and $5,000. This indicates that the platform’s success isn’t reliant on a few large traders, but on the participation of many smaller, everyday users.
Overcoming Legal Challenges
While Polymarket’s performance is strong, the platform does face ongoing legal challenges. These hurdles may soon be resolved, particularly if the regulatory environment becomes more favorable to crypto-based prediction markets. A positive resolution to these issues would provide Polymarket with even more opportunities for growth and stability in the future.
Unexpected Pardon Shakes the Market
In an unexpected turn of events, the market was taken by surprise when Hunter Biden was pardoned by his father, President Joe Biden. Prior to the announcement, the chances of a pardon were seen as unlikely, with contracts trading at just 28-30%. After the pardon was confirmed, the contracts surged to 100%, paying out $1 per share. This dramatic shift serves as a reminder of the unpredictability of prediction markets and how quickly market dynamics can change based on real-world events.
Controversy and Apology
Polymarket also found itself in the spotlight for an apology issued by former NFL player Antonio Brown. Brown had made disparaging comments about Polymarket’s founder, Shayne Coplan, but later clarified that his remarks were connected to business dealings with Kalshi, a competitor. This controversy highlights the competitive nature of the prediction market industry and how personal disagreements can spill over into the public eye.
